With the exit of Allegri, many people look at the mercato as
largely successful. But was it? Some argue that the questionable transfers made
weren’t that big of deal, or that we should just wait and see until summer…. again.
But I am tired of just waiting and seeing. I have waited and seen enough to
know that we are going back to the old ways of doing things. And while free
transfers sound like a bargain, in the end, they are costing us more than if we
paid full transfer fees and wages for quality players. While the squad is
obviously in a state of transition, is it heading in the right direction? All
signs of this transfer market point to no. Despite Seedorf being new and this
season being “a wash,” if you look at our history and at the big picture, you
will see the warning signs. So this is not just another anti-management rant.
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| The highlight of this mercato |
First of all, I do believe that in quality, Milan did
marginally improve the squad in January. Bringing in Honda and Essien, and
taking Rami and Taarabt on loan should improve the quality of play. Certainly,
they have more collective experience, which is very helpful after Milan cleaned
house with the Senatori over the past
18 months. Honda is an especially great talent, even if he is cup-tied for the
Champions League, a quality player and professional likely at the peak of his
career. As for Essien, he is a world class player, with amazing experience, but
there is the concern of his fitness, as he did fail the first medical due to
his past knee problems. But if his knees hold up, having him on an 18 month
contract could prove very helpful. Rami and Taarabt are more of a gamble. At
28, Rami is nearly an ideal age and height as a center back, but is also a
ticking time bomb behaviorally. Taarabt is 24, which is actually a good age to
bring into the squad, but also seems to have character issues and has been
called lazy, so a bit of a risk. But both of those players are only on six
month loan deals, so it is hard to argue against them.
From a purely personnel point, the mercato would then seem to
be positive. We also brought back the young Petagna, who may actually get more
playing time at Milan than he did at Sampdoria. We loaned out Niang, Matri,
Vergara, and Nocerino, all on 6 month loan deals. I think most people would
like to see Niang and Vergara come back, but are hoping the other two are sold.
Which would be ideal, but the transfer market is never ideal. And keep in mind,
all four players still belong to the club. So if we want any of them off the
books come summer, we will have to find a club who wants them, get them to
agree to the transfer, and agree to terms as far as the financial side of
things from both sides. We very likely may lose money on the deals, especially
Matri, coming so expensively. That is, if they want to leave. They are at a big
club, getting paid more than they are worth, and with our injury problems, are
nearly guaranteed playing time. But those big fat contracts that our management gave them give them the
right to stay. Even worse, like we did with a number of players, we hold them
until they are free transfers, so lose money on them.
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| Free transfers can be deceptively expensive |
So if you take off the Galliani-colored glasses, with four
sent out on loan, one coming back from loan, two purchased, and two brought in
on loans, we actually have one more player in the squad than we did on January
3rd, and two more players on the books. This after most agreed that we needed
to shrink the squad. A bloated squad means less playing time for everyone,
especially our younger players. When you bring in older, experienced players,
they are naturally going to get the playing time that the youth players would
have, as even the most committed-to-youth managers are going to play a Honda or
an Essien ahead of a Saponara or a Cristante. Which is a shame, and impacts the
development of those players’ and their careers long-term.
But that’s not all. At the beginning of the 2012-13 season,
Milan had an exciting average age of 26.4 years old, with only 4 players over
the age of 30. At the end of last summer’s mercato, having added players like
Coppola, Silvestre, Matri, and Kaká, the average went up to 27.2, with 8
players over the age of 30. Now it is 27.4, with 9 players over the age of 30.
As we add experience, we also raise the average age of the squad, something
that became a problem before the mass exodus of the Senatori.
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| Ambrosini was shoved out the door on a free transfer to reinforce a rival club |
In addition to doubling the number of players over 30 years
old, we currently have five more players in the squad who will be turning 30
this year. That would be 13 players 29 or older in the squad (plus two more
potentially coming back from loan in the summer,) or half our squad And the irony is, again, that by adding experience,
we decrease the odds of young players getting playing time, thus increasing the
chances of them going on loan or even sold. We have a number of very talented
youth players coming up through the ranks, but the management have made it
clear that they have neither the time nor the patience to nurture youth.
So let’s talk wage bill. Milan have been slashing our wage
bill since the summer we sold Ibra and Silva. For example, the total club wage
bill was reportedly €160m in 2011-12, €120m in 2012-13, and down to €105m in
2013-14, but this mercato saw us raise wages again. And the question remains,
is the quality of Milan players equivalent to the wages? With such a significant
decrease in the wage bill, many feel that the quality level has dropped even
more sharply.
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| One is on a six month loan, the other one of our top wage earners. But which has more quality? |
It all seems so subtle. But in the end, we are making the
same mistakes again. Keep doing what we have always done, and we will keep
getting what we have always gotten. Galliani gets free transfers, which
translates to higher wages. So spend nothing on a one-time expense to spend
more money on a recurring annual expense. Buy players on a deal because they
have had injuries and/or disciplinary problems, and then you have a squad with
(wait for it…) injuries and disciplinary problems. You roll the dice, it pays
off sometimes, you try to ignore the others. Our wage bill is on the rise again,
and our average squad age is higher than you think, as we still have a handful
of youngsters left over from that “youth project” we were force-fed 18 months
ago to keep the average a little lower.
Speaking of the “youth project,” that lasted about six months.
And yet in spite of that, a squad that was younger and less talented had better
results than this season’s much older squad. Huh. Too bad we didn’t just stick
with that. But now we have Seedorf. And everyone is convinced that he will be
given every tool he needs to succeed in his new “project.” And while it’s hard
to argue that he won’t, being “the chosen one,” even management are being
cautious here. All of those position-specific coaches he wants? Well they
aren’t here yet, are they? Seems like even management want to wait and see what
he can do for the first six months before they spend like that.
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| A balance is needed, and youth need playing time |
And then there is the summer mercato. Or this “new project” with
Seedorf at the helm, This is where the hopelessly optimistic “wait and see”
idealism comes into play. The same optimism that people had over and over
before, only to be dashed by poor results or a squad that was not competitive.
There is no magic wand to decrease the squad size, to balance age and
experience, develop youth and buy quality players to be competitive. It is a
process that takes a lot of money, wisdome and/or time. But Milan have run out
of money, and don’t seem to have the wisdom or the patience of time, evidenced
by the “youth project” that lasted only six months. Management may be committed
to Seedorf now, but do they have the discipline it takes to give him the
balanced squad he needs over time? The short-sighted purchases of this transfer
window point to a resounding no.
No one expected every problem to be solved in January, I
certainly didn’t. In fact, bringing in Rami & Honda, with the promise of
multiple players leaving would have been a perfect mercato for me. But the fact
that we have 30 players now instead of 29, with no guarantee of people leaving
in summer is a massive red flag for me. This is not a problem that is solved in
a single transfer window, this is a disease. A bloated roster with an aging
squad (at least the Senatori had
quality and lots of experience,) and the same poor habits we have seen time and
time again that caused so many of the problems we have been having financially
(like until recently, the highest wage bill in Italy.) Even if we get better
results, I will not put on Galliani-colored glasses, and I will not drink any
of this management’s Kool-Aid. This is a problem, and even if a new sporting
director comes in and overhauls the squad with a vengeance this summer, it is a
problem that will persist if the management continue to adhere to this lack of
planning and overall grasp of the big picture. I told you that this was not
just another anti-management rant.
This post inspired by the music of
Rammstein
Our next match is
Napoli vs. Milan
Saturday, February 8 • 20:45 CET 2:45 EST