Monday, February 1, 2021

Milan Penalties: For the Haters

Milan have had phenomenal form over the past year. Not only are they at the top of Serie A, they have been breaking records for everything from fielding the youngest team in Europe to longest unbeaten run in both Serie A and Europe to the most consecutive games with two or more goals scored, and so many more. I understand the consequences of winning - that rival fans are going to hate and try to find something to blame the winning on. However, despite Milan having a ridiculous amount of penalties awarded this season in comparison with other clubs, the fact is that those penalties do not make a ridiculous amount of difference on the table. That said, this one is for the haters.


Ibrahimovic has missed a penalty and had two saved, still other teams can't catch Milan


Milan have been awarded 14 penalties in Serie A this season. In contrast, Juventus, Roma, and Sassuolo have only been awarded five penalties each. This statistic has raised eyebrows, but referees, analysts, and others all acknowledge that with the exception of the one bizarre penalty vs. Roma, all of the other penalties were completely deserved. In fact, Milan should have actually been awarded more. Credit it to the attacking playing style, the mental intimidation of a team in good form, Milan's talented players, or the price of tea in China. It doesn't really matter, because all of the penalties were penalties.

Rival fans jumped on this statistic like pigeons on a crust of bread. Claiming that Milan are cheating, paying the refs, receiving unfair treatment, etc., they attribute Milan's success to the astronomical number of penalties awarded. But actually, Milan have been succeeding in spite of penalties.


This table includes relevant information about each penalty awarded Milan this season: 

10 of our 14 penalties made zero difference in Milan's outcomes this season

If the Lega Serie A pulled a Thanos and snapped their fingers to make every single one of Milan's penalties disappear, Milan would only be missing seven points. Think about that. The penalties were awarded over 12 different matches. If the penalties had been the deciding factor in all of those matches, that would be 36 points difference for 14 penalties. 

But the truth is that penalties only decided the outcome of four of those matches. That is only a difference of seven points from the actual outcome. Which means that with zero penalties awarded to Milan, based on today's table, Milan would be tied for third place with Juventus.

If the penalties our opponents converted against us were also removed, that would level out the Roma game, and Milan would be tied for second place with Roma as of this writing. Literally, all of those penalties would only change our position on the table by one or two places.


Why concede a penalty to a team with a penalty scorer like Kessie? That's on you, haters.

That is not 14 penalties difference. Milan are winning because they are winning. Not because of any favoritism from the referees, not because of earning almost three times as many penalties as any other club in the league. Milan are top of the table because we deserve to be. Opposition fans need to worry more about why their teams are conceding penalties to Milan every time they take the pitch, and worry less about Milan's penalty count. I guess we should take solace in our rival fans having the ability to count to 14, but all the way around, they are still not winning. That is the sad truth of Milan's penalties for the haters.


This post inspired by the music of The Hives' "Hate to Say I Told You So"


Our next match is
Serie A Week 21
Milan vs. Crotone
Sunday, February 7 • 15:00 CET (9am EST)