Friday, September 20, 2024

AC Milan 1, Liverpool FC 3: Moneyball Miscalculation

After taking the lead in just the third minute, Milan collapsed to Liverpool, losing 3-1 at the San Siro in our first Champions League match of the new League Phase. Having watched our first four matches, I don't know why this would surprise anyone, it's not as if having a ball with stars on it and playing a team that was even stronger than any of our opponents was somehow expected to transform this Milan side into world beaters. (Liverpool's wagebill is nearly three times the highest wagebill of any opponent we have played so far.) Most of all, I am confused as to why our management told us they were building a team for the Champions League, when our only success thus far has been against a 10-man newly promoted side. They have sent away most of the team who won the Scudetto with us, who played in a Champions League semifinal with us, replacing them for a bunch of ready-to-play Moneyball players. They sacked the manager who built that team, and replaced him with a cheaper, unproven version who is alienating the players and not getting any results. It wasn't just this match, their whole project is a Moneyball miscalculation.

As if losing isn't bad enough, a bunch of criminals booed and chanted against them.

We were given hope as Milan attacked immediately, creating a chance through Leão and Reijnders in just the second minute, but was offside. And in just the third minute, Pulisic dribbled halfway down the pitch, took a quick assessment of everyone's position, and took the shot, slotting it across the goal past Alisson. 1-0 Milan. The San Siro, only 60,000 strong, erupted. And the team rode that wave for about 15 minutes.

Pulisic strikes again.

Of course, it wouldn't be a Milan match without people getting injured. Just five minutes in, Theo had to get treatment, it looked like his mouth had been bloodied, it looked like perhaps Salah got him in the face at about the two and a half minute mark, just before he threw the ball in. And just a minute later, Maignan was down, rubbing his calf, one of the most worrisome images for Milan fans. After some treatment, though, he, too was able to continue.

We were also lucky in that Mo Salah mistook this match for a crossbar challenge, hitting it not just once, but twice, in both the 17th and 30th minutes, with Maignan clearing the ball each time. The refereeing was interesting, as well. Normally, UEFA referees call everything, but apparently, that is not how Norwegian refs roll. Or at least not this Norwegian referee, Eskås. In addition to Theo's bloody mouth, van Dijk clearly elbowed Morata in the head in the 18th minute, amongst many other fouls that went uncalled, for both sides. 

This is about as much as Eskås did all match.

He did, however, award Calabria the first yellow for a foul on Gakpo in the 22nd minute, so that was fun. To be fair, Calabria was claiming to have not gone through Gakpo's leg to get the ball, but the video evidence was damning. Speaking of damning, Liverpool scored from the resulting free kick, so it got better. Alexander-Arnold sent the ball in, and Konaté headed it in. 1-1 all. Maignan was impeded by Tomori, neither of them got to the ball, and they collided, not for the last time in this match, either.

Liverpool had Milan pinned back now, and for his efforts, Fofana also received a yellow card for his foul on Salah in the 31st minute. Salah took a shot in the 40th minute that Maignan pushed just wide, and the resulting corner kick was a disaster. After the match, it was said that while Fonseca had been asking his players to use zonal marking throughout the match, he had asked them specifically to man mark just on set pieces. On this set piece, we saw Reijnders, a 6'1" (1.85m) Dutchman marking his 6'5" (1.95m) compatriot, van Dijk,  for some reason. There were at least five Milan outfield players in the box, and van Dijk stepped between the 6'3" (1.91m) Loftus-Cheek and the 6'4" (1.94m) Pavlović to head the ball past a helpless Maignan. 2-1 Liverpool.

Reijnders is an amazing player, but why was he the one left marking van Dijk?

In the 44th minute, Pulisic went running into the box, and was stopped by Tsimikas, which looked very much worth a second look to me for a possible penalty, but Eskås did not allow it. And in fact, we were never even shown a replay of it on camera, which in a way is more suspicious. Three minutes into stoppage time before the half, Gakpo sent a rocket of a shot in, forcing Maignan into a big save.

After halftime, in the very first minute, Maignan kicked the ball, went down, and signaled for a substitution. Not sure why he wasn't subbed at halftime if he was in that much pain. But as Torriani was still getting ready, Diogo Jota came running in on attack, Maignan came out, and took the full force of his boots, as well as another collision with Tomori. He was clearly in immense pain, and with Torriani already having been summoned, the question is, why did it take Fonseca that long to make the substitution? Finally, as Maignan pulled his shirt over his face to hide the tears as he limped off in the 51st minute, 19 year-old Torriani made his first team professional debut. In a Champions League match. No pressure.

What a way to make your first team debut... but he was up for it.

In the 57th, we saw van Dijk shove Morata in the back from behind while the two were running. Most referees call that a yellow card, but that was not even a foul for Eskås. Just a couple of minutes later, Morata was down in the box again, and the result ended up him being called for a handball for his arm touching the ball as he was down, following a lot of contact from Gakpo. Free kick for Liverpool. Fonseca was given a yellow card for dissent. And while this particular call may have been technically correct, having been VAR reviewed as well, I think it was not just Morata or Fonseca who were frustrated with all the other non-calls before it.

Seven minutes later, Szoboszlai scored on a counter attack. 3-1 Liverpool. I won't even get into how many errors were made along the way, beginning all the way down at the other end, but Torriani deserved better from his teammates on his debut. In the 69th minute, Calabria went down with an injury. He signalled for a substitution, which was already about to happen, and was replaced by Emerson Royal, while Loftus-Cheek was replaced by Tammy Abraham. Milan were down two goals, and two players to injury.

Emerson Royal, the mystery signing... as in it's a mystery as to why we signed him.

In the 84th, Rafa Leão, seemingly frustrated, basically did a roundhouse kick flying into Konaté. While Eskås did whistle for a foul, most refs would have awarded a yellow for that. It looked like pretty dangerous play to me. Literally, this guy was not calling anything. Fonseca replaced Morata and Tomori with Okafor and Gabbia. A minute later, Reijnders' shot was blocked, then Theo had a shot from distance that went just wide. Gabbia sent a header over, and in the final minute of stoppage time, Leão had one of the best chances for Milan of the match, but Alisson saved it.

The Curva Sud started out the night with a fabulous coreo that read "Fearless," which is coincidentally what Pavlović's first name, Strahinja, means in Serbian. By the end of the night, their support had all but disappeared. Yet in a sense of irony that they never seem to understand, they called the team over after the match and whistled and criticized our players for not giving enough effort. 

Waiting for the sequel, "We'll make you fear us."

The pundits, too, had plenty to say about the match. They have reignited the flames of controversy and torched the entire club to the ground with incendiary comments about everything from the players to Fonseca to to his tactics to the management and everything and everyone in between. Which is the ideal way to prepare a team for a bid Derby match, obviously.

To be fair, though, there are things happening. The club did not post Fonseca's postmatch interview. Ibrahimović, Moncada, and Furlani stayed at San Siro very late, well after everyone else left on Tuesday, apparently meeting about the team's situation, with Fonseca's future the most likely topic of discussion. There have been reports of Ibrahimović speaking to at least one other potential replacement. And plenty of other rumors that are more difficult to substantiate. But having only won one competitive match in five, it is not difficult to make the leap that Fonseca's job is on the line. When Giampaolo was fired, he had won three of his first seven matches, and they still let him go.

When your time is up, but you're still here.

But there is room for criticism in more than just Fonseca, or even just management's choice to sack Pioli and hire Fonseca. Cardinale knows nothing about football. He bought a team that was thriving, had just won the Scudetto, and the entire club had synergy. He came in with his ignorance and arrogance, fired a Milan and footballing legend, and promoted people who would tell him that he was as good as he thinks he is. There is a clinical term for this, it's called narcissism. 

But his insistence on his American business experience and the Moneyball algorithm being a way forward in football is actual delusion. His management style of "working groups" and bringing in Ibrahimović as a RedBird employee and Senior Advisor to Milan has simply caused confusion and chaos inside and outside of the club. Removing everyone competent means that he has now spent a ton of money on players, dismantled the Scudetto winning team, and now simply has a collection of players who do not make a cohesive squad. The midfield especially is a complete mess.

As if we needed a reminder as to how far we've fallen they brought out this legend.

The results are poor. The mentality is plummeting. The fans are angry and losing faith fast. Fonseca has lost the plot. Management have become a circus. Renewals hang in the balance. We started our Champions League campaign with zero points and a minus two goal differential. Things are just going from bad to worse exponentially, all because of a Moneyball miscalculation.


Milan Primavera Draw 0-0 with Liverpool in the UEFA Youth League

Our starting 11 for the first round of our UYL campaign this season.

Tuesday afternoon saw our U19 version of our Primavera host Liverpool's U19 at the House of Puma in Milano. (For the league, the Primavera side is now U20, but for the UYL, only the U19 players can play.) It was a tough match, with plenty of chances, but in the end, was a scoreless draw. There are highlights available if you missed the match. 


Torres vs. Milan Futuro Ends with a Scoreless Draw Midweek

A tough match, but a point gained.

Milan Futuro got their second point in Serie C on Wednesday night when they faced the unbeaten Torres side away in Sardinia. The guys created some good chances, but were unable to convert, with the match ending 0-0 at the final whistle. There are highlights available on the Serie C YouTube channel. Incidentally, this is the same side that Futuro will face at the end of November in the Round of 16 in the Coppa Italia. 


This post inspired by the music of NIN's "Head Like a Hole"


Our next matches are:
Campionato Primavera 1 Week 5
Inter Primavera vs. AC Milan Primavera
Sunday, September 22, 2024 • 11:00 CEST (5am EDT)
This match is not being televised in the U.S.



Serie A Week 5
Inter vs. AC Milan
Sunday, September 22, 2024 • 20:45 CEST (2:45pm EDT)
In the U.S., this match can be streamed on Paramount+, Fox Deportes, or Foxsports.com
or use a VPN to access better coverage



Serie C Week 5
Rimini vs. Milan Futuro
Monday, September 23, 2024 • 20:45 CEST (2:45pm EDT)
This match is not being televised in the U.S.